Weekly Market Update (Issue 524) – 9th November 2018

Weekly Market Update (Issue 524) – 9th November 2018

image_pdfimage_print

A few things to note this week, but I have to be short. Please forgive my brevity as I have a back-to-back day today.

Small-cap positives – Afterpay (APT) and BWX (BWX)

APT released a constructive trading statement this week that outlined a far more advanced rollout of their US payment platform than many, including myself, had expected.

In under six months since the launch in May, APT have seen 300,000 U.S consumers use the product, over 900 retailers transact using the platform, and there are a further 1,300 retailers to have signed agreements or are already integrating the platform in their business.

This is a terrific take-up, and I would simply point to the rapid rate of growth APT enjoyed in Australia post its launch, growing from 86,000 users at the end of FY2016, to 840,00 at the end of FY2017 and to now a figure of over 2.5m in Australia and New Zealand alone.

It seems American consumers are coming to appreciate APT as a sensible budgeting tool and retailers are embracing the system due to significantly higher basket sizes the APT platform generates for them.

We feel very comfortable with how APT is progressing and given the significant size advantage the U.S has over Australia, this confident initial take-up augers very well for long term growth projections, and ultimately, the equity value of APT.

We have APT management in to present to us later this month at which point we will learn more, but for now, we feel very confident that APT will be a $20 stock again during 2019.

In the case of BWX, we were encouraged about what we learned about the company today in a presentation we had from new CEO Myles Anceschi

Sadly, we didn’t foresee the internal procurement and I.T issues that befell sales and working capital early in the new year, but we feel encouraged that the underlying brand strength and product sales across all of Sukin, Andalou and Mineral Fusion are strong and outpacing their wider categories for growth.

Ultimately, we see BWX as a very cheaply valued, fast-growing consumer products business trading on a fraction of a multiple of its peer group and relative to what should be a continuous 10%+ type annual growth rate.

For a P/E of around 10x normalized earnings on our estimates, we think the stock is terrific buying for those with a medium-term outlook, and we certainly don’t discount the idea of BWX again falling under the sights of either private equity or a larger consumer group in the coming years if the valuation doesn’t begin to rise to meet its sound fundamentals.

Elsewhere this week…

Magellan (MFG) published some strong continued fund inflows last month, and this company we feel looks sound to reach our $30 target price in the months ahead.

The U.S election outcome shouldn’t be a big deal for economic policy, but I would note that the renewed strength of the Democrats in the House does raise the prospect of a pointier edge to Robert Mueller’s ongoing investigation into collusion with Russia during the last Presidential election campaign.

The uncertainty over this situation, and Trump’s ongoing recalcitrance in relation to his campaign’s involvement or not do raise the prospect of a negative headline or two. We can add this to one of many left field risks emerging on the global investment horizon as we look into 2019.

I will try and make up for this week’s short summary with greater colour on how we see things next week.

In the meantime, have a great weekend.

Jono, Guy and Jordan

Interest Rate Commentary & Update

For full interest rate commentary and updates please click here

Term Deposit Rates

For to view the latest term deposit rates click here

 

Australian Market Index

Thursday 5pm Values

Index Change %
All Ordinaries 6016 +91 +1.5%
S&P / ASX 200 5928 +87 +1.5%
Property Trust Index 1386 +25 +1.8%
Utilities Index 7086 -328 -4.4%
Financials Index 5897 +126 +2.2%
Materials Index 11638 +190 +1.7%
Energy Index 10972 -7 -0.1%

Key Dates: Australian Companies

Mon 12th November Div Ex-Date –  ANZ (ANZ)
Tue 13th November Div Ex-Date – Westpac (WBC), CGFB, SUNPD
Wed 14th November AGM –  Computershare (CPU), Medibank (MPL)
Thu 15th November AGM – Platinum (PTM)
Fri 16th November N/A

International Market Index

Thursday Closing Values

Index Change %
U.S. S&P 500 2806 +66 +2.4%
London’s FTSE 7140 +25 +0.4%
Japan’s Nikkei 22490 +802 +3.7%
Hang Seng 26227 +811 +3.2%
China’s Shanghai 2635 +29 +1.1%


Financial Services Guide

Please click here to download the most recent version of our Financial Services Guide.

Privacy Policy

We have revised our Privacy Policy. Please read these updated terms and take some time to understand them. Your use of this website is subject to these revised terms.

Disclaimer: This information has been prepared by Primestock Securities Limited ABN 67 089 676 068, AFSL 239180 (“Prime”). Prime accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. This information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this information, you should consider whether it is appropriate to your situation. It is recommended that you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. Prime is bound by the Australian Privacy Principles for the handling of personal information.

By | 2018-11-09T15:35:06+00:00 November 9th, 2018|Australian News, Market Summary, Weekly market update|0 Comments

About the Author: